CH. Résia Letter

Daily Market Intelligence — March 31, 2026

Executive Summary

U.S. equities closed the week near the lower end of their recent range. S&P 500 fell -0.39% to 6,343.72. The trailing one-week move is -3.24% and the one-month move is -6.94%.

Technology remained softer than the broad market. Nasdaq fell -0.73% to 20,794.64. The trailing one-week move is -4.44% and the one-month move is -7.65%.

Korea was firmer on a weekly basis, but the latest daily observation is flat because the market was closed. KOSPI stands at 5,052.46 and KOSDAQ at 1,052.39.

The short-horizon Bayesian VAR remains defensive rather than directional. SPX is biased lower with one-day forecast uncertainty of 1.23%; US10Y is biased lower with one-day forecast uncertainty of 1.52%; Gold is biased higher with one-day forecast uncertainty of 3.73%; USDKRW is biased higher with one-day forecast uncertainty of 1.22%; Oil_WTI is biased lower with one-day forecast uncertainty of 5.49%.

Cross-Asset View

The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.34%. The one-week change is -1.14%, and the one-month change is +7.05%. The Bayesian volatility filter places rates in a high volatility environment.

USD/KRW closed at 1,529.33. The pair rose +1.48% on the latest session and +3.12% over one month, which is consistent with a tighter external-financing backdrop for Korean risk assets.

Gold settled at 4,589.50, while WTI crude closed at 102.38. Gold remains in a risk-off regime, whereas oil is in a risk-off regime. That combination points to tighter financial conditions rather than broad cyclical acceleration.

Bayesian Market Regime Assessment

• SPX: risk-off regime, regime probability 82.1%, annualized volatility 13.1% (low volatility)
• NASDAQ: risk-off regime, regime probability 90.0%, annualized volatility 17.1% (moderate volatility)
• KOSPI: risk-off regime, regime probability 100.0%, annualized volatility 69.0% (moderate volatility)
• KOSDAQ: risk-off regime, regime probability 100.0%, annualized volatility 74.7% (high volatility)
• Gold: risk-off regime, regime probability 96.4%, annualized volatility 44.1% (moderate volatility)
• Oil_WTI: risk-off regime, regime probability 76.1%, annualized volatility 69.1% (moderate volatility)
• USDKRW: transition regime, regime probability 54.8%, annualized volatility 15.8% (high volatility)
• US10Y: risk-off regime, regime probability 99.8%, annualized volatility 20.8% (high volatility)

Equity Selection

The stock-ranking model processed 556 names. The highest-ranked opportunities remain concentrated in energy and quality compounders rather than speculative beta.

• CVX (CVX) trades at 210.71 with a composite score of 0.789. The model-implied 20-day upside probability is 66.3%, while the bull-regime probability is 93.5%. Annualized volatility is 17.8%, which keeps the signal investable but not low-risk.
• FOXA (FOXA) trades at 59.13 with a composite score of 0.759. The model-implied 20-day upside probability is 57.2%, while the bull-regime probability is 95.5%. Annualized volatility is 26.0%, which keeps the signal investable but not low-risk.
• EOG (EOG) trades at 149.89 with a composite score of 0.753. The model-implied 20-day upside probability is 71.4%, while the bull-regime probability is 75.4%. Annualized volatility is 22.7%, which keeps the signal investable but not low-risk.

The weakest scores remain concentrated in defensive real-estate and low-momentum balance-sheet-sensitive names:

• HII (HII): composite score 0.303, 20-day upside probability 29.4%.
• IONQ (IonQ): composite score 0.296, 20-day upside probability 25.9%.
• MSI (MSI): composite score 0.285, 20-day upside probability 30.0%.

Macro Data Review

U.S. CPI last printed at 327.46, with a sequential change of +0.27%. Unemployment is 4.40% and the effective policy rate is N/A%. Initial claims most recently fell +2.44%, which suggests labor-market deterioration is still limited rather than disorderly.

In Korea, the policy rate remains at 2.50%, CPI is running at 118.40, and the current account last printed at 13,259.10. The deterioration in the current account is notable, but not yet sufficient on its own to force a different policy path.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin trades at 67,300.00 and Ethereum at 2,053.74. The sentiment gauge remains at 11 (Extreme Fear). That keeps crypto in a fragile risk-sensitive regime rather than a durable accumulation phase.

Bottom Line

The current configuration is not one of broad-based risk expansion. Equity weakness, higher Treasury volatility, a firmer dollar against the won, and only transitional support from gold argue for selective exposure rather than aggressive directional risk. The model set is still finding investable long ideas, but the macro overlay remains restrictive.

This report is generated from model outputs and edited into a research format. It is not investment advice.